Sunday, August 19, 2007

FNBO Blunder: Due Diligence 2nd Request Email

FNBO achieved the seemingly impossible: It created a run on an FDIC-insured bank.

"Security" Measure Creates Mass Insecurity

FNBO Direct followed its previous threat to keep customers’ money with this new threat:

As part of your initial application, we did not receive information regarding your current employer, occupation or position. In many cases, this is because you have a status of retired, unemployed or self-employed. We are updating our records as part of our on-going due diligence to be compliant with our standards to support the USA Patriot Act.

Due to the importance of the USA Patriot Act, we have placed a hold on your account(s) until we can document this information for our records. No deposits or withdrawals can be made through your account(s) until we receive this information. We will release the hold upon receipt of this information.

Please provide us with your previous employer, occupation and position by sending an email with this information to fulfillment@fnbodirect.com. If this information is not received within 30 days, the account(s) may be closed. Your immediate attention to this matter is appreciated.

If you wish to discuss this further, please send an email to fulfillment@fnbodirect.com or call 877-370-3707. Please reference your FNBO Direct account number displayed at the top of this page when you contact us.

Thank you for choosing FNBO Direct for your Online Savings Account.

FNBO Direct Customer Service

Problems:

  • The email does not state that any law requires these actions. FNBO only states that you must comply with "our" (FNBO's) standards (if a law does require them, that topic is for another article).
  • Having money is not prima facie suspicious, unless you want to be subject to interrogation every time you pull a bill from your wallet: Do you have a receipt for that dollar? Millions of people have something called “savings” from past jobs. Maybe some bankers have nothing better to do than interrogate retired Grandma and the self-employed teenage babysitter.
  • The email starts by stating that FNBO does not have your “current employer” but then asks for your “previous employer.” FNBO apparently does not even know what it wants.
  • FNBO’s action is not due diligence. It is closer to no diligence at all. If FNBO is so worried about Grandma’s “suspicious” money, it should verify or deny before accepting her money, not after, so she can take her pension elsewhere. FNBO’s sequence of actions shows that it has few qualms about receiving Grandma’s “suspicious” money; it just dislikes giving Grandma her money back.
  • Some posts on the web claimed that providing more information had solved nothing so the only ray of hope for the customer is that FNBO "may" close your account if you do nothing and do not provide the information, so at least you might get your money back--a month later--maybe (hope you did not need it to pay bills anytime soon).
  • The email reads like a classic phishing scam when a con artist impersonates an institution to steal your identity, this time invoking FNBO and the PA instead of the Bank of Nigeria. Many businesses state that they would never send such an email asking for such personal information by email.

How To Make Things Worse: What FNBO Direct Did with Its Policy

  • FNBO actually managed to damage itself further by taking its bad policy and then mistakenly applying it to customers who already had provided employment information, when on August 10 it sent the above email (with its confusing, out-of-the-blue "2nd Request" title) to an untold number by accident.
  • FNBO then took almost 3 hours to issue an apology email, amidst a flurry of complaints from irate customers.
  • FNBO still did not learn its lesson because its "apology" only told customers to disregard the last email but in the next breath warned that it still could freeze your account and send you a similar email at any time: "If Due Diligence information is required, you will receive a follow-up email."

Meanwhile, FNBO Direct customers peppered internet forums and blogs with announcements that they were withdrawing their money and closing their accounts as soon as possible.

FNBO achieved the seemingly impossible: It created a run on an FDIC-insured bank.

Friday, August 17, 2007

Should Bernanke Resign?

Should Ben Bernanke Resign? Who Should Be the New Federal Reserve Chair?

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Personal Finance Carnival 113 Features Home Finance Freedom's "Fact V. Emotion in Personal Finance: Do Not Confuse"

Home Finance Freedom's "Fact V. Emotion in Personal Finance: Do Not Confuse" was featured by the 113th Carnival of Personal Finance at My Open Wallet in a "TGINF" edition, along with a number of good articles from fellow PF bloggers. Thank you.

Carnival of Money Stories Featured Home Finance Freedom's "Savers Are from Mars. Debtors Are from Venus. Episode 4"

Home Finance Freedom's "Savers Are from Mars. Debtors Are from Venus. Episode 4" was featured by the Carnival of Money Stories at Bryan C. Fleming, along with a number of good articles from fellow PF bloggers. Thank you.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Carnival of Financial Planning Features Home Finance Freedom's "Inflating Leveraged ROI Can Ruin You"

Home Finance Freedom's "Inflating Leveraged ROI Can Ruin You" was featured by the Carnival of Financial Planning at The Skilled Investor, along with a number of good articles from fellow PF bloggers. Thank you.

Carnival of Money, Growth & Happiness #13 Features Home Finance Freedom's "Leveraged Investments: High ROI Is Not Always Best"

Home Finance Freedom's "Leveraged Investments: High ROI Is Not Always Best" was featured by the 13th Carnival of Money, Growth & Happiness at Credit Card Lowdown , along with a number of good articles from fellow PF bloggers. Thank you.

Friday, August 10, 2007

24-Hour Delay in PFblogs.org Posts: Testing

Previous: What Is Your PFblogs.org Delay?

Atom feed picked up my last blog post quickly but it took a day to appear on PFblogs.org so I am testing the time lag with this post.

Update: This post appeared on Atom feed within minutes and on PFblogs.org within an hour.

The fastest lag that I have noticed is about an hour delay but there are periods where performance degrades to a day later, which impairs the "news" value of the aggregator as almost no one will see the article when it posts to a buried position.

To my feed subscribers, do you notice any significant delay to your feed subscription?

Thursday, August 9, 2007

Personal Finance Carnival 112 Features Home Finance Freedom's "Homeowner Profits Ignore Huge Costs: Housing Myths Part 4"

Home Finance Freedom's "Homeowner Profits Ignore Huge Costs: Housing Myths Part 4" was featured by the 112th Carnival of Personal Finance at The Frugal Law Student in a "Best Week Ever" edition, along with a number of good articles from fellow PF bloggers. Thank you.

Friday, August 3, 2007

Vanguard 500 VFINX Loses 20% of Your Money from 8 Years Ago

Previous:
Beware Vanguard 500 Faulty Logic & False Performance Measures for Investments

Update 8/4/07: This article originally was based on Google Finance Beta's "10y" graph on 8/3/07 but the "10 year" graph did not cover 10 years (thanks, Google) so I re-adjusted the article for 8 years.

When Claims of +160% End at -20%

The Vanguard 500 S&P 500 index fund, often claimed to give a 12% return on investment (ROI) rate, closed today at $132.16, an excellent lesson in real returns.

Misleading "Average Annual Returns"

First, note that average annual return rates tend to overestimate your gains.

Simple hypothetical of a $100 lump-sum buy-and-hold:

Year - Investment - Return
0 ............ $100 ......... -
1 .............. $50 ...... (50%)
2 ............ $100 ...... 100%

Average annual rate of return: (100 + (-50))/2 = 25%

You started with $100 and you ended with $100 but your $0 gain shows +25% average annual return.

Of course, you actually have 0% gain on your initial value after 2 years.

Use the Geometric Mean Instead.

What if you put your $100 in the Vanguard 500 VFNIX 8 years ago?

If you expected 12% per year, you expect to find your $100 investment to have grown to $260 after 8 years, a 160% increase over your initial value.

De Ja Vu: "Hey, this is where I started!"

However, the Vanguard 500 spent the better part of the last decade in the V-graph pattern of our simple hypothetical: The VFINX share price was about $130 about 8 years ago and closed at about $132 today, which is about 0% growth after 8 years.

Real Negative Returns

If inflation were about 3% per year, then the Vanguard 500 performed as if it had been losing your money at -3% per year.

The real value of your initial $100 is now about $80. You lost 20% of your real money over the last 8 years.

Opportunity Costs

Some say, "Invest as early as possible!", but today you can buy VFINX at about the same dollar price (less in real terms) as 8 years earlier and have the same nest egg at retirement as the person who invested 8 years before you--and meanwhile your money could have been accomplishing other things for the past 8 years.

Some say, "Invest instead of paying off your mortgage!", but someone who had a windfall 8 years ago and chose to invest the lump sum in the Vanguard 500 instead of paying off a mortgage would have done even worse than the real 20% loss by adding the mortgage's real negative return to the VFINX's real negative return.

"In the long run, we are all dead." -- John Maynard Keynes

VFINX eventually will rise again and you can find other timeframes with higher returns on investment (ROI) but remember that certain investments or markets can be flat or worse for a decade. Even if Investment A beats Investment B in the long term (several decades), Investment B might beat Investment A in the short- or mid-term. You might have an immediate goal such as paying off a mortgage or other debt that can make you thousands of dollars richer than borrow-to-invest schemes when alternative investments are in--or are about to enter--the doldrums.

Always do the math for your specific circumstance and do not rely on optimistic promises.

See:
Never Prepay Mortgage? Housing Myths Part 1

Thursday, August 2, 2007

Negative 11% Home-Value "Appreciation" Rate Is Considered Good Now?

Negative 11% is one of the best "appreciation" rates in the nation.

The Real Estate Bloggers posted a list of the top 20 real estate markets over last year.

Look at Detroit (below).

If the "top" 20 home-value "appreciation" rates include double-digit negative rates, what do the worst 20 markets look like?

Top 20 Markets: Real Estate Property-Value Appreciation Rates over Last Year

Seattle 9.10%
Charlotte 7.00%
Portland 5.70%
Dallas 1.80%
Atlanta: 1.70%
Denver -1.40%
New York -2.30%
Chicago -2.80%
Cleveland -2.80%
Los Angeles -3.30%
Miami -3.30%
San Francisco -3.40%
Minneapolis -3.50%
Las Vegas -4.10%
Boston -4.30%
Phoenix -5.50%
Washington, D.C. -6.30%
Tampa -6.70%
San Diego -7.00%
Detroit -11.10%

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

Fact V. Emotion in Personal Finance: Do Not Confuse

Feel-Good Finance Folly

Lazy Man recently posted about taking the personal out of personal finance. He and the commenters made good points about how, if people need psychological or morale boosts, they should get boosts by seeing the benefits of the rational choice, rather than wallowing in the bliss of ignorance. I agree so far but there are important distinctions about which "personal" intrusions are bad.

Different valuations are inevitable.

First, people put personal values on items but I do not think that is what we mean by "psychological" irrationality. We cannot say, "You should have bought the whiskey that is on sale because it is clearly a better dollar-value than the milk." Basic economics says that the only reason people trade is because 2 people value the same item differently. You sell a book because you value the $10 cash more than the book--but you have to find a buyer with the opposite preference of valuing the book more than their $10 cash. If everyone shared your preference, you never would be able to sell. Without differential values/preferences/goals, there is no market.

The key is that everyone is rationally pursuing their different values and goals.

The Illusion of Progress:

Psychological irrationality is working against your goals, when you do not pursue/achieve your goals efficiently.

The problem is when someone wants to eliminate debt but pursues the goal irrationally. I do mean people who give lip service to fiscal health but clearly value other things more such as keeping up with the Joneses or refusing to admit a bad investment decision (although there are clearly psychological issues there). I mean people who fool themselves into bad decisions and think that they are gaining wealth efficiently when they are not.

Do not confuse difficult pricing with emotional irrationality.

Two people can look at "X risk level" and rationally decide differently based on their different personal risk averseness--but do not confuse that with 2 people with identical risk averseness who rationally decide differently because they disagree on what the risk level is. When 2 people disagree that the stock market will return 10%, that is not a difference of risk averseness, that is a mathematical dispute. Quantifying risk and estimating future prices is difficult but it is a mathematical job.

The anti-debt scolds might look emotional if stocks bubble--but the stock cheerleaders might look emotional if stocks crash.

See:
Never Prepay Mortgage? Housing Myths Part 1
The $200,000 Blunder: Housing Myths Part 2
Inflating Leveraged ROI Can Ruin You
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